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Welcome to Sepupunomics!

Victor Tan
 

Welcome friends and sepupus from around the world!

Sepupunomics is a blog and educational resource for both the young and the old on the wonderful subject of economics!

At this stage, many of you are coming from YouTube – thank you for stopping by and I hope you’ll find this entertaining and educational.

If you didn’t, you’re probably wondering – What is a sepupu?

Well, it means “cousin” in Malay. If you’re not down to read too much, just know that in my mind, I am sepupu, you are sepupu, we are all sepupu from across the universe; if you REALLY want to know what a Sepupu is and why I’m using this name against all good sense and even though it requires an explanation, here’s why this site is called Sepupunomics.

Part blog, part IGCSE, A Level, and IB Diploma Program economics resource sheet and combination of deep dives that almost nobody goes into, this is my attempt to help you understand the world and economy a little better as I learn about the world through the lens of economics, read about it, and reflect about it with you on this journey.

If you’ve never studied economics and you want to know why you should consider studying it…

Start with What is Economics and Why Learn About It?

There you will get a bit of the flavor of choice, what economics is, and why you may care even if you never take economics formally as a subject.

I hope you will have fun reading and thinking about some of these questions which have animated me for many years!

Meanwhile, just as we have our things in order, consider the…

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IGCSE, A Levels, and IB Diploma Economics (In General)

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I started this blog because it’s what I would have wanted as a student, and I think that the topics within are both fascinating and intriguing to me – if they’re interesting to you too, it looks like we’ve found a match, an equilibrium, a clearing! 😀

Also yes, it is a blog, so you’ll get some of my thoughts here, there, and everywhere.
If you find this work valuable, do consider sharing it over social media, sharing it with your students, feel free to integrate it into your lesson plans as well, and make sure to learn as much as you can during this epic time ahead 🙂

…What are you waiting for?

Meanwhile, a most urgent matter: If you’re here for the first time and scratching your head about what a sepupu is, it means “cousin” in Malay – also, watch this video.

It may seem silly, but this is one of my many sources of motivation. More to come soon!

Happy reading!

V.

Is ChatGPT Making Us Stupid? A Sepupunomics Deep Dive on AI, Intelligence, and the Economy

Victor Tan
 

Sepupus, the internet has been abuzz of late because of a new MIT study called “Your Brain on ChatGPT”.

All around on Reddit and the internet, people are starting to form wild conclusions, read patterns in the stars, decide unilaterally or with the agreement of some people out there and everywhere, that somehow now people are being made stupid and MIT researchers have said that it is so and therefore it must be true.

I find it interesting and fascinating.

Now, in what way is this related to economics if at all?

Well, artificial intelligence is a very important part of our economy and it will continue to be important for the foreseeable future, as it shapes and reshapes the economy and how we treat human capital in ways that are intuitive and sometimes unintuitive, in ways more subtle and interesting than the standard narrative of robots replacing human beings may suggest.

It’s interesting to think about it and how it’s going to affect the way that we can live and work in this world which is ever-changing and continually evolving. With that in mind, here’s my perspective.

I do not generally think that ChatGPT is making us stupid.

I read the MIT study earlier, and I broadly understand the way that it is constructed.

You can have a look at it here.

Link: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2506.08872

Basically, what they did was that they asked participants to write SAT-style essays across three sessions chosen from a range of choices in three different groups:

1. One purely using their brains

2. One using Google

3. One using ChatGPT

Then, they had some participants come back for a fourth session where they swapped people from one group to another — 18 people did this in total.

Now this is what ChatGPT says, in summarizing what happened:

(AI generated – also, as a full disclosure, I do use AI-generated content on this website once in a while; consider this a disclosure that you may see AI generated content here once in a while, although I affirm that I will curate it to ensure that it is high quality and it is accurate and matches experience. I hope you won’t mind as what matters more I think is the specific choice of what to show to you rather than the question of whether the content is generated by AI or if it is not!)

What the Study Did

The researchers wanted to understand how using ChatGPT-like tools (called LLMs, or large language models) affects your brain and your essay writing.

They divided participants into three groups:

  1. LLM group — people who used ChatGPT to help write their essays.
  2. Search Engine group — people who could use Google to help them.
  3. Brain-only group — people who weren’t allowed to use any tools; they just used their brains.

Each person wrote three essays under their assigned condition.

In Session 4, they mixed things up:

  • People who had used ChatGPT before were asked to now write essays without it (LLM-to-Brain).
  • People who had never used ChatGPT were now allowed to (Brain-to-LLM).

Only 18 participants completed this fourth session.

What They Measured

They used several ways to assess the participants’ thinking and writing:

  • EEG (electroencephalography): This measures electrical activity in the brain. They looked at brainwaves to see how engaged or active the brain was.
  • Essay analysis: They checked the essays using Natural Language Processing (NLP), human teachers, and anAI-based scoring system.
  • They also looked at how similar or different the essays were (in terms of topics, words used, named entities, etc.).
  • Self-reports: They asked participants how much they “owned” or felt connected to their writing.

What They Found

🧠 Brain Activity:

  • Brain-only group had the strongest and most widely connected brain activity. Their brains were working hard and across many areas.
  • Search Engine group had moderate brain engagement.
  • LLM users had the least brain activity and the weakest connectivity — indicating low mental effort.
  • When LLM users switched to Brain-only, their brain activity stayed low. It was as if their minds were still in “autopilot” mode — under-engaged.
  • When Brain-only users switched to LLM, they had high activity in memory and visual/spatial reasoning areas — kind of like how Google users behaved.

📄 Essay Quality and Similarity:

  • Essays from each group became more similar within their group — especially in wording and topics. LLM users’ essays were more homogeneous.
  • LLM users had the lowest sense of ownership of their essays and often couldn’t remember or quote what they had written.
  • Brain-only users had the highest sense of ownership and memory of their writing.

⏳ Long-Term Effects:

  • Over 4 months, the people who used LLMs consistently:
  • Had weaker brain engagement
  • Wrote more similar, less original essays
  • Felt less connected to their work
  • This suggests that relying too much on ChatGPT may make people less mentally engaged and less able to learn deeply.

Bottom Line

(I disagree with this)

  • LLMs like ChatGPT make writing easier, but they might also reduce mental effort and learning.
  • This has serious long-term implications for education, especially if students use LLMs without actively thinking.
  • The study doesn’t outright say ChatGPT makes you stupid, but it shows that heavy dependence on AI tools may hinder cognitive growth and originality over time.

Alright, no more AI.

I disagree with the interpretation, and I’ll tell you why.

It seems simple and intuitive to conclude that ChatGPT is making people stupid because of the lowered brain activation in the people who use LLMs over the period of several months.

However, in my mind, there are several problems with that, and it is good that the authors of the study acknowledged limitations and also the need for people to conduct more extensive studies, even as they note that there was no choice of LLMs, the participants were all recruited from nearby universities and were not a diverse sample, and the task in itself was a narrow one.

Firstly, as the researchers admitted, this task was specifically related to essay generation with a limited set of topics.

Secondly, the observed drop in brain connectivity cannot be meaningfully and purely attributed to a decline in cognitive performance but can also be attributed to a reduced engagement in the tasks.

For instance, people who used ChatGPT may not have been so absorbed with their first, second, and third essays and therefore when they came to the final task, they may have just come in with no strong feelings whatsoever.

This can be interpreted as a decline in cognitive performance, but should it be interpreted as such?

The researchers do not tell us, and it is probably something that they did not really look into in the context of this study.

Let’s also now consider another broader point about intelligence at large, now in a Sepupunomics context.

While working memory and brain connectivity might be taken as indicators of intelligence, it is unclear that they are the sole indicators of intelligence — That lack of connectivity or engagement indicates a lack of intelligence.

In fact, what we consider ‘intelligent’ now has changed drastically relative to what we used to understand as intelligent, and given the fluid nature of intelligence throughout the course of history, we have no reason to suppose that the future should be static or unchanging — or that connectivity or engagement in this context indicates the presence or absence of intelligence in a person.

Intelligence in every era has always been defined relative to outcomes that we consider to be valuable or worthwhile; as Naval Ravikant has observed, and I paraphrase, the intelligent man or woman is the one who gets what they want out of life.

In every generation, social and economic conditions have changed, and human beings and our brains have adapted and evolved in relation to those social, economic, and material conditions.

Accordingly, the jobs and the tasks that we now consider valuable have also vastly changed compared to the past – what is valuable human capital is now drastically different to what would have been considered valuable human capital a generation ago.

Human capital: the value employees bring to a company that translates to productivity or profitability, and more loosely, the value that human beings bring into an organization (whether a company, a nation-state, or the world) that translates into benefit to the world.

Today?

Automated autogates have replaced the toll booth operators that used to sit there lazily one after another, and the ATM has made it so we speak to bank tellers only when there are special circumstances that we cannot deal with; the job that we call a farmer now varies across countries and civilizations and can still in fact mean the small holder carrying a hole and wearing galoshes, or it can mean the grand scale tractor fleet operator running cloud seeding of operations with artificial intelligence.

For many reasons that include these changes in technology, the jobs of our era have changed, the demands of employers have changed in relation to what they need because of how different skills are now required in this era, and what we call or consider valuable human capital has changed – This is not theoretical. It is already happening and it has happened for years, and will continue to happen in the years to come.

Coincidentally, I was speaking with some students earlier and telling them about how nowadays it has become normal and uncontroversial that people no longer remember phone numbers anymore… But that’s not a bad thing, and neither does it indicate that people have become stupid because now they cannot remember phone numbers.

Rather, it hearkens to the fact that now, what is called cognitive offloading is a possibility – because technology now permits it, we can use phones as external cognitive storage for us, thereby freeing us from dedicating those cognitive resources towards memory. In our modern social context, it would be the person who cannot operate a phone who would likely be considered “stupid”, not the person who cannot remember a phone number but can retrieve it from their device.

The same thing has happened with directions — These no longer preoccupy so many of us because Google Maps has now replaced the need for us to consult physical maps and then discover how to go to certain places, even though that isn’t universally doable and won’t always work with all locations.

My Assessment:

Given the limited nature of the task, the possible alternate interpretations of the data, and the fact that intelligence can certainly be defined in other ways, I cannot conclude that there is a causal impact between usage of ChatGPT and a drop of intelligence or increase in stupidity.

In lieu of that, and in critiquing the study, I would say that ChatGPT allows us to participate in the world in new and different ways, which some might argue is reflective of heightened intelligence and that was not accounted for by the study.

Note for example that the study task is something that very much does not represent best use of ChatGPT — merely using ChatGPT in order to generate essays and then copying and pasting the contents in order to create a Frankenstein creation that the creator, so to speak, had no knowledge of and only was able to appreciate on a surface level.

We are perhaps aware that we should not ask camels to climb trees, fish to fly in the skies, or birds to swim across the English Channel.

That would be absurd and it would be entirely illogical.

It is fun to visualize, though!

In the same way, I think it is silly to suppose that we should evaluate people’s brain waves on ChatGPT and then come up with easy conclusions about whether they have become smarter or dumber when in the very first place, using ChatGPT in that particular situation was analogous to all of the somewhat colourful examples I had provided earlier.

With ChatGPT, people have the ability to explore a very wide range of topics very quickly.

They have the ability to confirm their assumptions, assess their own thinking, ask questions that people would never ask under normal circumstances, and then figure out whether they were correct or if they were wrong and obtain directions for future research.

This cycle of confirmation and disconfirmation, research, understanding, analysis, and synthesis is extremely quick — but none of those things or the ways that they may relate to ‘intelligence’ of the new era is really tested under the condition of being asked to choose a single essay and write it, and none of this is accounted for under the conditions that the researchers placed the participants.

As acknowledged by the researchers, the results that we saw were highly context-dependent — If intelligence is, as Mr. Ravikant said, getting what you want out of life, it seems almost a little silly to imagine that a study involving writing an essay would generalize to the entirety of life and the vast array of situations outside of ChatGPT that a person could ostensibly use it for.

We as laypeople may come up with a hundred misconceptions of what the results may show or what they may show or may not show, and it is entirely a person’s right to talk about what happened to their mother/father/sister/brother/irresponsible child/precautious baby using ChatGPT or anything else they like…

But the capital-T Truth remains out there and definitely should be a subject of investigation for the future.

Conclusion:

We cannot unambiguously conclude that.ChatGPT inherently makes you stupid or make you smart — Certainly not from the study. The authors affirm this as well, and the truth, as it turns out, remains a matter of opinion.

Here is mine.

I would not guess that that capital T truth is that with respect to how our society defines or will redefine intelligence at a later state, in consideration of the ocean change that AI is bringing to our world, that people who are using ChatGPT are becoming more stupid; after all, (and this is AI) Malaysia’s MyDIGITAL blueprint and Singapore’s AI governance frameworks both acknowledge that productivity in the 21st century isn’t just about raw mental horsepower — it’s about tool fluency, adaptability, and strategic attention.

Like any other tool, ChatGPT can make you stupid or it can make you smart, depending on how you choose to use it — Calculators can certainly make you dumb if you repeatedly bash them against your head and end up rewiring your brain the wrong way. I suppose, although that’s not really something that people use calculators for, even when we relied upon them. Perhaps we made up for what we lost in arithmetic skills with a greater and vaster exposure to problems that we would never have encountered.

This doesn’t exclude higher levels of talent from emerging within the system as outliers that stand beyond the calculator, the pen, the paper, and certainly ChatGPT – And it also doesn’t exclude the possibility that because of AI and the way that all of us are using it and living through it in this era, that even the paradigm of what we consider worthwhile to teach and to learn both in economics and in life will change along the way.

On my part, I am pretty confident that I have become smarter than I otherwise would have been now as a result of ChatGPT. Relative to what I would have been in an alternate universe where it had not come into existence.

Of course, there is no way to construct a counter-factual or to disconfirm that. But I suppose in the long run and on the balance of things, time will tell — If using this technology continues to help me to get what I want out of life and everything good along the way in ways that continue to affirm my sense that this technology is game-changing, cognitively altering, and a complete break in the way that we used to do things., then I suppose that I will not have been entirely wrong in my assessment.

Thank you for reading, and see you in the next one!

V.

Islamist Economic Governance: PAS, Global Islamist Parties, and the Case of Iran

Victor Tan
 

Hello and welcome back, sepupus! (Psst! Join our Telegram group!)

Politics is not conventionally considered a part of Economics, but in reality, the subjects are deeply intertwined; Economics is the art of allocating resources to best meet the unlimited wants of humans in the best possible ways, while politics in many ways decides what every society and economy deems best.

The relationship goes a little further than that, but the first ‘economists’ like Adam Smith, Ricardo, JS Mill, and Karl Marx were political economists – they wrote not only about how resources are allocated in society, but also institutions, laws, class relations, governance, and moral philosophy.

These aren’t topics I’ve written about just yet, but they are things I will touch on a little later.

Meanwhile, today, we will be talking about Islamist economic governance, focusing on PAS and later Iran. Exciting topic – normally, this would be a premium resource given the amount of research that has gone into it, but in this instance, your access will be free although you will have to register in order to read this piece in full.

Why?

Well, because today, I saw a strange recommendation from former Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department for Legal Affairs and Judicial Reform, Zaid Ibrahim.

This was what I first saw when MalaysiaKini reported the matter.

I could not believe what he had said, and there was a part of me that just immediately had something almost akin to an allergic reaction. Iran? Like, in the middle of a war and being threatened by Donald Trump Iran?

Before long, I had started writing, and the result is what you see today – Which begins by understanding what Zaid actually said.

Here is what Zaid said:

I find Zaid’s opinion interesting. I respect Zaid’s right to his opinion, but I do not share it for various reasons, including the fact that an ulama council would not be elected and would not be subject to democracy – not that PAS really respects democracy beyond a means to an end to confront the fact that their end goal is impossible under the conditions of the nation state, but certainly, we can see that they try.

In the very first place, it is unclear that PAS respects the constitution of Malaysia or our monarchy (Feat. A discussion between me and Dr. Azmil Tayeb), and it has been rebuked by the royals for that specific reason, preaching respect for royalty only when it is convenient for them.

I would also observe that PAS may have tried to offer a moral and political direction, but it appears that what we have is repeated instances of lawsuits because of slander, shaky assertions from leaders such as Siti Mastura and Razman Zakaria, what seems to be a culture of facilitating that slander and hate speech on the part of its leaders, heady declarations against non-Muslims asserting that they cannot and should not have political power and that no matter what, Malay Muslims must rule and other races are safe only IF that is the case, failure to address drug addiction, maintain water infrastructure, and so on and so forth while they maintain moral and religious policing while peddling hatred with no clear or apparent benefit, and preach morality while failing to maintain moral standards amongst the populace while insisting that it is only with their governance that they can ensure a moral population despite minimal evidence that they have succeeded in any meaningful way on that front unless morality is racial saber rattling, pretending to ‘protect’ people while trying to co-opt racial causes built on scaring their own race, including people who visited Christmas celebrations by choice, supporting individuals punished for the charge of slandering people and thereby jeopardising their right to religious freedom (See: Becoming Hannah), while pretending they are the representatives of the Malays, repeatedly lying about their political opponents, imagining that disasters involving foreign nationals are a ‘punishment from God’ with half-baked logic, and then reaping the rewards of their logic by praying for concerts to be canceled by rain only to receive floods in their states. This they do while stifling critical thinking across almost every dimension while preaching a constant narrative about their being oppressed or colonized in every way, while casually trying to establish dominance, betraying their political partners

Oh, how about the part where they even tried to conduct foreign interference into Singapore, peddling influence of a flavor that Ahmad Mattar from the PAP alleged was one of the PAP’s deep concerns (Page 254 – 255, The Singapore Dilemma by Lily Zubaidah Rahim – now selling for the pretty price of RM1179.20 on Shopee, and SGD81 on Kinokuniya Singapore – or it would be if it weren’t out of stock) and gaslighting Singaporean Malays, as part of tag teams with individuals of questionable repute such as Noor Deros?

Need I say more?

Let’s also observe that netizens too do not share his opinion, although note that this is merely one part of the echo chamber, and there are more echo chambers out there – do read widely to avoid that, and don’t take what I say as the truth without evaluation.

Also, opinions are not evidence or truth – but they do say something. Consider some of the truth conveyed by the comments below.

As for no financial scandals?

Maybe.

But then Clare Rewcastle-Brown might disagree on that point.

Well, Zaid is entitled to his opinion – but if you were to ask me?

It is my opinion that constitutionally, ethically, educationally, developmentally, institutionally, environmentally, socially, and culturally, PAS has failed.

In other words?

Well, Zaid said that PAS can “take Malaysia to heights we have yet to reach”.

That’s interesting.

Do we have proof that they have done so that somehow we have a confidence that they have the ability to govern the present as a rational basis for the future?

Do we have any proof that they can do that beyond their feeble statements in parliament, and their whataboutism involving DAP?

What’s the verdict?

It is not encouraging.

If it is true as Zaid says that PAS can “take Malaysia to heights we have yet to reach”, that does not really seem to be related to its religious agenda, and it would appear that it has to be tied directly to what is common to all of us after you cut away everything else.

This brings us now to our main topic.

That’s right, sepupus.

This is Sepupunomics, and it logically follows that we must talk about the economy.

PAS and the Economy

We discussed the numerous failures of PAS on multiple fronts earlier, all of which relate in nuanced ways to methods of capturing standards of living that stand beyond the usage of gross domestic product per capita – to demonstrate that PAS has failed on all of those fronts.

If PAS administration is good administration, then that logically must mean that it is able to push Malaysia forward to achieve goals such as standards of living improvements – Rather than just religious sabre-rattling and moral policing while hoping for sedekah or rezeki or for parties like DAP to do research through their think tanks on matters like the hydrogen transition, National Energy Transition Roadmap, National Semiconductor Strategy, or the New Industrial Master Plan 2030.

What do we mean?

If we are to say that PAS can in fact rule Malaysia, then they must be able to deal with the Malaysian economy and show proof that they can deal with the Malaysian economy.

Otherwise, it is meaningless to talk about the concept of ‘advancement’ in the first place.

Let’s understand what PAS is doing with what it has at the moment to try to understand whether it has what it takes to deal with the rest of the country and in turn deal with the rest of the world.

PAS‐Ruled States in Context

It would not be fair to declare that the present state of PAS-run states is purely the result of PAS administration, and we have to look at what all these governments were dealing with beforehand – a very important part of economic logic.

In economic terms, what happened on the margin?

In other words, what happened as a result of PAS administration that would not have as a result of PAS administration, to the extent that we know it?

In the best case scenario, we would be able to split up reality into two dimensions, and have PAS rule one set of states and another dimension where PAS did not rule those states, and then compare the economic differences.

Unfortunately, we only have one reality to look at, and we cannot completely know what an alternate history would look like where PAS ruled states were not ruled by PAS.

However, we can make comparisons across states in order to get ourselves an idea.

With that in mind, let’s first have a look at what PAS is dealing with and its timeline of control to understand what they have done with the economies of the states they have ruled.

Timeline of PAS Control

StatePAS First Took OfficePeriods of RuleQuick Context at Handover
KelantanOct 1990Continuous since 1990Already Malaysia’s poorest; GDP pc ≈ RM3–4 k in 1990 (≈15 % of national). Rural, rubber-rice economy and ageing infrastructure.
TerengganuNov 19991999-2004, then again since May 2018Inherited an oil-rich state (royalty > RM1 bn/yr) but BN had financed many prestige projects; PAS immediately lost royalty as Putrajaya converted it to wang ehsan cash grants
(thenutgraph.com)
.
KedahMar 20082008-2013 (Pakatan-PAS), lost, then since May 2020Took over a state with Kulim High-Tech Park (1990s BN legacy) and large paddy sector; manufacturing cluster linked to Penang supply chains.
PerlisNov 2022Since 2022Tiny, agrarian economy; PAS administration too recent for trend analysis.

1 What Has Happened to the Numbers under PAS?

Let’s compare the growth rates of PAS economies as compared to Malaysia as a whole as a baseline to understand what we are working with.

Key idea: Instead of looking only at today’s ringgit values, compare how fast each state’s GDP per capita (current prices) has grown since 2015 ― the first year with a consistent DOSM time-series. Eight years is long enough to see whether PAS administrations are closing the gap with the rest of Malaysia.

StatePAS in power*GDP pc 2015 (RM)GDP pc 2023 (RM)Nominal compound growth 2015-232023 level vs. national avg. (RM 54 612)
Kelantansince 199012 07516 836+4.2 % a year31 % of national
(en.wikipedia.org)
Terengganu1999-2004, 2018-now26 52931 111+2.0 % a year57 % of national
(en.wikipedia.org)
Kedah2008-13, 2020-now18 24926 353+4.7 % a year48 % of national
(en.wikipedia.org)
Perlissince 202220 19624 004+2.2 % a year44 % of national
(en.wikipedia.org)
Malaysia (average)37 10454 612+5.0 % a year100 %
(en.wikipedia.org)
Penang (for contrast)non-PAS44 84772 586+6.2 % a year133 %
(en.wikipedia.org)
Selangor (largest economy)non-PAS42 61162 492+4.9 % a year114 %
(en.wikipedia.org)

* PAS first entered Kedah in 2008, lost in 2013, and returned in 2020. Terengganu had a BN interlude 2004-18.


What the numbers mean – in plain language

  • Kelantan: grew by about 4 % a year, but Malaysia as a whole grew faster (5 %). That means Kelantan has slid from 32 % of the national average in 2015 to 31 % today. Put simply: it’s still the poorest state and is not catching up despite three decades of uninterrupted PAS rule.
  • Terengganu: even with billion-ringgit oil royalties, its income per person rose just 2 % a year – the slowest of any PAS state and far below the national pace. In 2015 an average Terengganu resident earned 71 % of the national mean; by 2023 that share is 57 %. The gap widened.
  • Kedah: the bright spot among PAS states. Thanks largely to the pre-existing Kulim High-Tech Park and Penang spill-overs, Kedah grew almost as fast as Malaysia. Yet its citizens still earn less than half the national average, so the distance hasn’t really narrowed.
  • Perlis: PAS only took office at end-2022, so its below-average trend (2 % growth) mostly reflects long-standing structural limits of a small, rural economy.
  • Penang & Selangor (benchmarks): These non-PAS states show what higher growth (5–6 % a year) looks like. Both started ahead and pulled further away – which is NOT what we would expect.

How about Poverty?

2022 Absolute-Poverty Rates by State

(Department of Statistics Malaysia – Household Income Survey)

State2022 poverty rate (% of households)*Notes
Sabah19.5 %Highest in the country
(sdg-for-malaysian-states-sdsn.hub.arcgis.com)
Kelantan 12.4 %Second-highest; long-run PAS administration
(sdg-for-malaysian-states-sdsn.hub.arcgis.com)
Terengganu 12.0 %Heavily oil-royalty dependent; PAS since 2018
(sesricdiag.blob.core.windows.net)
Sarawak9.0 %Large rural interior
(sdg-for-malaysian-states-sdsn.hub.arcgis.com)
Kedah 9.0 %PAS-led since 2020; figure crept up from 8.8 % (2019)
(en.wikipedia.org)
Perlis 8.9 %PAS only from late 2022; tiny agrarian state (DOSM dashboard)
(sesricdiag.blob.core.windows.net)
Perak7–8 %Mixed agriculture/industrial belt (DOSM dashboard)
Pahang~7 %Large rural east-coast interior (DOSM dashboard)
Johor3.9 %Diversified, manufacturing & services hub
(sesricdiag.blob.core.windows.net)
Melaka3.9 %Tourism–manufacturing mix
(sesricdiag.blob.core.windows.net)
Pulau Pinang3.9 %Electronics cluster, high urbanisation sesricdiag.blob.core.windows.net
Negeri Sembilan4.3 %Commuter belt to Klang Valley
(sesricdiag.blob.core.windows.net)
Selangor1.5 %Malaysia’s richest state
(aei.um.edu.my)
W.P. Kuala Lumpur1.4 %High-income, service economy
(aei.um.edu.my)
W.P. Labuan0.4 %Offshore finance hub
(aei.um.edu.my)
W.P. Putrajaya0.2 %Civil-service enclave, small population
(aei.um.edu.my)

Plain-English take-aways

  1. Poverty is clearly higher in PAS-governed states.
    • Kelantan and Terengganu are the only states on Peninsular Malaysia with double-digit poverty rates.
    • Kedah and Perlis also sit well above the national average despite far smaller populations.
  2. Royalty money isn’t a silver bullet.
    • Terengganu receives > RM1 billion in oil royalties most years, yet its poverty rate (12 %) is only slightly better than Kelantan’s (no royalties).
    • The quality of spending and economic diversification are stronger predictors of outcomes than the size of fiscal transfers.
  3. Urban, diversified states do best.
    • Selangor and Kuala Lumpur post poverty rates near 1 % thanks to broad-based job creation in manufacturing and services.
    • Penang, with an electronics export hub, keeps poverty under 4 % despite limited natural resources.
  4. East-Malaysia outlier.
    • Sabah’s 19.5 % underscores that geography and late infrastructure catch-up still matter; it is not a PAS state, showing that party control is only one factor.
  5. Trend since 2019:
    • Poverty nationwide rose sharply during COVID-19 (8.4 % in 2020) and eased to 6.2 % in 2022, but PAS states have been slower to recover, partly due to weaker tourism and outward migration of workers.

In short, PAS-run states consistently occupy the higher-poverty end of Malaysia’s spectrum, and while limited royalties (Kelantan) or boom-bust royalties (Terengganu) contribute, the persistent gap points to deeper issues of investment climate, industrial mix, and human-capital retention rather than fiscal transfers alone.


2 What PAS Inherited vs. What Changed

Kelantan

  • Starting point (1990): Poorest state, weak industrial base, poor road/water networks, but strong overseas remittances from migrant Kelantanese.
  • PAS record:
    • Limited capital spending—average development allocation < RM700 m/year vs > RM2 bn in most states.
    • Tight syariah-first bylaws (gender-segregated cinemas, alcohol curbs) seen by investors as red-tape; ISEAS notes “low private-sector dynamism” and out-migration of talent(iseas.edu.sg).
    • Oil royalty dispute: offshore deposits are beyond 3 n mi; Kelantan receives token goodwill money only (RM 58 m April 2025)(theedgemalaysia.com).
    • Outcome: GDP pc climbed, but only from 15 % to 31 % of national level; poverty remains > 20 %. Water losses (non-revenue water > 50 %) and roads top public-complaint list(theedgemalaysia.com).

Terengganu

  • Starting point (1999): An oil province with royalties > RM1 bn/yr; BN trophy projects (Crystal Mosque, Monsoon Cup) but limited diversification.
  • First PAS term (1999-2004): Federal government withheld royalties; growth stalled; PAS lost 2004.
  • Second PAS term (2018-present): Royalties restored—RM 1.05 bn in 2018, ~RM 1.27 bn in 2019(malaymail.com)(malaymail.com)
  • Structural flaw: 70 % of revenue from royalties; MARC Ratings flags “crowding-out” of tax effort and boom-bust budgets(marc.com.my). Non-oil GDP share stagnant.

Kedah

  • Starting point (2008): Paddy belt+Kulim High-Tech Park (Intel, OSRAM); poverty falling.
  • PAS 1st era (2008-2013): Focus on smallholder schemes & religious schools; disputes with Penang over water pricing dampened interstate cooperation; electronics cluster continued under MNCs.
  • PAS return (2020-): New agenda on rare-earth mining, solar parks; water dispute persists; SG4 bloc created with Dr Mahathir as adviser to lure FDI(straitstimes.com).
  • Scorecard: GDP pc rose but to only 57 % of national; poverty at 9 % (higher than 2009’s 5–6 %).

Perlis

  • PAS/PN only since 2022; too early for data shifts. Baseline: small agriculture, border trade with Thailand.

3 Systemic Differences in PAS Governance

FeatureHow PAS States DifferEconomic Consequence
Fiscal ModelHeavy reliance on federal transfers (Kelantan) or oil royalties (Terengganu); low own-source taxes.Volatile budgets, under-investment in infrastructure during downturns.
Regulatory ClimateMoral bylaws (liquor, entertainment segregation) stricter; local councils dominated by party cadres
(iseas.edu.sg)
.
Adds compliance costs; tourism & service SMEs complain of red-tape, deterring diversification.
Development PrioritiesHigher share of spending on religious schools, welfare stipends; lower on industrial parks, R&D.Slower tech & manufacturing catch-up vs. neighbour Penang; brain-drain of graduates.
Oil WindfallsTerengganu spends >60 % of royalty on operating outlays rather than long-term funds; Kelantan lacks such windfall but similar outcome.Classic “resource curse”: consumption today, limited savings for tomorrow.
Inter-governmental RelationsPeriodic royalty and grant disputes with federal govt.project delays (water, highways), investor uncertainty.

4 Did Anything Improve under PAS?

  • Human development: Literacy rates and basic amenities (electricity, piped water) improved nationwide, including PAS states. DOSM shows Kelantan’s rural electrification > 98 % by 2022 (from < 60 % in 1990).
  • Industrial enclaves: Terengganu’s downstream oil & gas cluster (Kertih) kept expanding; Kedah’s Kulim Park attracted higher-end chip back-end plants—both projects originated pre-PAS but were not derailed.
  • SG4 experiment (2024-): First proactive effort by PAS administrations to pool resources and seek FDI collectively; still untested but signals a shift from grievance politics to deal-making.

Is “Lack of Oil Royalties” the Whole Story?

No. Kelantan’s chronic poverty correlates with zero or low royalties, yet Terengganu shows that having > RM1 bn/year royalties doesn’t ensure prosperity; governance quality and diversification matter.

Oil cash is neither a silver bullet nor the root of all woes; it magnifies whatever institutional strengths or weaknesses already exist.


5 Bottom Line

  • PAS took over already-lagging states, but the gap with the national average has not closed; in relative terms Kelantan and Kedah remain stuck, Terengganu slid somewhat, and Perlis is unchanged.
  • Structural choices—fiscal dependence, moral-regulatory conservatism, modest investment in growth sectors—explain more of the under-performance than royalties alone.
  • The new SG4 bloc may indicate learning—but until PAS states address core issues (talent outflow, business climate, revenue diversity), oil checks or federal grants will continue to fund subsistence, not transformation.

Key Sources: DOSM state GDP & poverty datasets(en.wikipedia.org)(dosm.gov.my)(open.dosm.gov.my); CEIC state GDP series(ceicdata.com); oil-royalty payments reports(theedgemalaysia.com)(malaymail.com); ISEAS studies on PAS governance(iseas.edu.sg)(bookshop.iseas.edu.sg); Straits Times on SG4 formation(straitstimes.com); MARC Rating on Terengganu dependency(marc.com.my).

The Oil Royalty Question

Now perhaps Zaid or PAS politicians would like to talk about how in fact they have been deprived of royalties and don’t have the money and cannot develop.

Let’s now consider that aspect of the argument. In relation to what we can see from the moral policing that is characteristic of PAS states.

Why growth lags despite (or regardless of) oil money

  1. Oil royalties aren’t everything
    • Terengganu proves that having RM 1 billion-plus a year is no guarantee of faster growth; poor diversification and stop-go spending blunt the benefit.
  2. Investment climate matters
    • Kelantan’s restrictive by-laws (gender-segregated entertainment, liquor curbs) and limited infrastructure make investors choose Penang or Selangor instead.
  3. Fiscal model
    • Kelantan relies on federal grants; Terengganu on royalties. Both spend heavily on salaries and welfare, leaving less for productive capital projects that raise long-run incomes.
  4. Human-capital leakage
    • Young professionals from PAS states migrate to Klang Valley or Penang for better jobs, so local productivity growth stays low.

Take-away in one sentence

Over 2015-23 all PAS-run states grew in absolute terms, but—except for Kedah—they grew slower than Malaysia as a whole, so their people are not catching up in relative prosperity.

That shortfall stems more from policy and governance choices than from the presence or absence of oil royalties alone.

Wow, that was a long discussion. Give yourself a round of applause and sip some tea.

What can we see here?

We can see that even though PAS took over from other parties that were already lagging, they did not raise their states to new heights.

They are not doing so, there is no evidence that they are able to do so, and any potential indication that they will raise Malaysia to greater heights is wishful thinking and is likely ideological rather than on the basis of the existing data about PAS governance.

But wait, Mr. Zaid might say, “Past (PAS?) results do not guarantee the future!”

How wonderful. Therefore, we should not support your favourite party.

Maybe he will say:”Well, the statistics show that the Malay support PAS!”

How wonderful. Therefore, it is desirable for non-Malays to migrate unless there is deep evidence indicating that there will be a tectonic shift. That evidence is not present in your states and is at best based on a vain promise that is not supported by any earthly thing. We do not believe in your spiritual things, and based on your actions as identified above, it seems reasonable to conclude that many of you do not either.

Oh, but then…”You haven’t looked at what the people in Iran are doing! Clearly, they are deeply more capable!”

I’m glad that you asked!

Because this analysis includes also what our friends in Iran and in fact all Islamist parties around the world are doing.

With that in mind, here is a full-scale analysis of Iran which Mr Zaid seems to love so much, to establish a comparison between PAS and its existing failures that in turn do not tell a touching or inspiring tale about the economic future of this country if that governance were extended to the rest of Malaysia.

Introduction

Islamist political parties – those seeking to govern by Islamic principles – have had varied success in managing economic affairs. This report examines their economic governance across several countries (including Malaysia’s PAS) and then focuses on Iran.

We compare Iran’s economic progress before and after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, in percentage growth terms, against world averages. We also consider the role of oil, private enterprise, and other factors in Iran’s economic trajectory. Finally, we analyze common trends in how Islamist-led regimes affect economic growth.

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